All Forecasts On This Page Utilize The Forecasting Methodology Taught At:

About Bo Yoder
Beginning his full-time trading career in 1997, Bo is a professional trader, two-time author, and consultant to the financial industry on matters of market analysis, and edge optimization.

A partner at Market Forecasting Academy, Bo has been a featured speaker internationally for decades and has developed a reputation for trading live in front of an audience as a real-time example of what it is like to trade for a living.

In addition to his two books for McGraw-Hill, Mastering Futures Trading, and Optimize Your Trading Edge (translated into German and Japanese), Bo has written articles published in top publications such as TheStreet.com, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Trader’s, Active Trader Magazine and Forbes to name a few.

Bo currently spends his time with his wife and son in the great state of Maine where he trades, researches behavioral economics, and is a passionate sailboat racer.

He has an MBA from The Boston University School of Management.
Market Forecast For The Week Of 2/27/21
Written By Bo Yoder, Published 2/27/2021
Welcome To My Weekly Market Forecast!

My goal for these columns is to share with you, clear and actionable market forecasts that you can use to make more money from the markets!
I will work hard to keep these quick and easy…

While the story behind a stock or a market’s movement fills up space on the page and can be somewhat interesting… 

It doesn’t tell you with clarity WHERE THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO GO!

To gain that insight, you MUST analyze the forces of supply and demand, something I do using a proprietary set of tools and a methodology I and my partners share with a select group of clients at https://marketforecastingacademy.com.

Yes…

The story CAN drive supply and demand forces, but at the end of the day, perception is reality.

The market ONLY goes up when there are more buyers than sellers, and ONLY goes down when there are more sellers than buyers.

So that’s what I will be focusing on, as that is where all the money hides!

Let’s get right into the forecasting, and let’s begin with the US stock market’s most popular index…

-Bo Yoder
The S&P 500 (ETF:SPY)

The S&P 500 (analyzed here using the ETF:SPY) has been on a run straight up since the mini crash in March of 2020. Having rallied more than 50% almost straight up, most traders have been expecting a pullback to occur for the past several weeks, but no clear topping action has formed.

While it is true that the bulls are losing control of the market in the short term, our supply/demand measurement tools are showing that there is still a strong buy side imbalance, so we would expect any pullback to be little more than a correction.

At this time, the market is extended to the upside and the odds are higher for a pullback to occur then a continuation of the run. However, these biased odds are not lopsided enough to generate a high probability trading opportunity, so I would avoid the short side for now.

My forecast for the S&P this week will be generally sideways to down, and I would focus on scalping intraday reversals with a very short time horizon until more trend clarity shows itself.
GOLD (ETF:GLD)

With all the money that the world’s central banks have printed in recent years, the conventional wisdom is that gold should be skyrocketing as a “hedge” to inflation.

But supply and demand forces are the ONLY thing that drives a market, and the gold market (analyzed here using the ETF:GLD) has been locked in a multi-month correction as it drops back away from it’s highs near $2,000 per ounce.

I have been patiently waiting for a buying opportunity in gold, as my forecasting tools are indicating that this market will likely at least retest the highs, offering a couple of hundred dollars per ounce in upside potential once a high probability bullish entry is offered.
BEST BUY (BBY)

There is a most entertaining and interesting shorting opportunity showing itself in the stock of BBY (Best Buy).

With the GameStop craziness a few weeks back came a short squeeze attempt with loads of hype and publicity in the stock of Bed, Bath and Beyond.

That stock’s symbol is BBBY, and as is often the case, there are plenty of foolish, impulsive and uninformed gamblers who typo-ed their orders and bought BBY (with only 2 B’s!) by mistake!

That buying surge came out of nowhere and caused a “splash” of liquidity in BBY. This stock had already experienced an “end of trend” process and was turning over into correction, so this sudden bullish surge likely caused a small short squeeze in the stock.

Soon, the fumble-fingers will have figured out they made a mistake and start to panic. They will need to dump their erroneously accumulated shares into a supply/demand environment that is strongly bearish.

This should deliver a quick ping-pong back to the lows, at which point we can measure with more precision what the odds are for more bearish follow-through.
So, my trade plan in this stock would be…

Take short exposure anywhere within the red zone, and take a loss if the high side of that zone is violated.

I would definitely take ½ profits when the green zone is tested and at that point will make a data-determined decision about whether or not to hold on and trail stops based on my forecasting tools measurements.
EURODOLLAR VS US DOLLAR (EUR/USD)

There are many traders who have seen the inverse head and shoulders pattern forming in the EUR/USD (Eurodollar vs the U.S. Dollar.). There will be a lot of folks who are taking long positions in reaction to this price pattern, but I am forecasting that this pattern is likely to struggle and fail.

There is hidden bearish energy in this market that my forecasting tools are identifying which the rest of the traders are not aware of…

This “weight” will likely suppress follow-through and the odds are highest that a double top or lower high will form in the weeks to come.

I will be focused on looking for short exposure if price works it’s way up into the red zone, and would expect to take profits down into the green zone. I’ll be able to measure the odds with more granularity as we test that red zone and see how strong the bullish attraction to this pattern really is.

Best case scenario would be for a double top, as that would offer the best risk to reward potential. However, if the inverse head and shoulders fails badly, that would add some shock pressure to the flip market sentiment for the bulls.
If they start to panic early, that could add fuel to the fire and produce a momentum move to the downside.

Bottom line, I hope to exploit the hidden knowledge I have with my market forecast to “fade” this setup and profit by it’s failure…
Copyright © 2021 - Bo Yoder