EURODOLLAR VS US DOLLAR (EUR/USD)
As I forecasted last week, the inverse head and shoulders pattern in the EUR/USD (Eurodollar vs the U.S. Dollar.) DID provoke a short lived bullish surge that quickly fizzled.
Unfortunately, the hidden bearish energy in this market that my forecasting tools identified was “heavy” enough to keep prices just a tad below the red zone, so this trade never went “active”.
I definitely am still expecting that green zone to be tested, and who knows…while the odds are really low, there is always the possibility for a second chance entry up in the red zone in the week to come.
While it’s always disappointing to miss the fill you expected, this experience highlights how forecasting price moves and actually structuring A TRADE that has the necessary edge are separate challenges.
Yes, you COULD chase here and get short for a move down to the red zone, but that would be foolish as your risk is big, and your profit expectation is small.
Remember, trading is a business!
Keeping your head and heart OUT of the process is critical to long term success.
You have to play with the math of odds and objective supply/demand measurements which give you the data points needed to forecast with accuracy week after week, month after month.