EURODOLLAR VS US DOLLAR (EUR/USD)
To compound on top of the frustrating loss in MS as I got “run over” by news, we have the missed opportunity here in the EUR/USD (Eurodollar vs the U.S. Dollar.) which neatly fulfilled the profit targets this week as the inverse head and shoulders proved to be a trap for the bulls as forecast.
While my focus in these weekly communications is to share the best price forecasts I find, these two frustrating trades offer a teachable moment about the real world experiences of the active trader.
Both the EUR and MS forecasts give my brain the opportunity to indulge in wasteful and destructive negative self talk.
It’s “unfair” that the EUR didn’t test the green zone and therefore never “set up”. This means I can’t claim it as a successful forecast even though it did almost exactly what I forecasted it would.
MS stopped out after a news event, and I suspect will end up also end up fulfilling my bearish price forecast, and I could dwell on that failure as something “they did to me”.
These are common mental traps that traders get stuck in which really harm their ability to remain objective and sustain their edge in the markets long term.
As a career trader who has been active in the markets for over 20 years, I know how outrageously your brain can lie to and insult you.
What is critical is to step OUTSIDE yourself and look at the ONLY THING you have control over….your forecasts!
Yes, I can’t claim the EUR as a winner. But I know a lot of folks took alternate entries and intraday positions and made some good money on the decline I forecasted and that’s GREAT!
Yes, MS got beat up by news, but that came out of the blue so was just simple market risk…
This one just offers the potential to “hurt” more because the failure had a clear “reason” to point at.
A lot of times there is no reason and forecasts just plain fail! It’s the ratio of winners and the SIZE of those winners vs losers and failed forecasts which determine performance.
So I challenge you to not take any trades you take (or miss) this week “personally”, and look at the big picture and the PROCCESS that will take you to the better future that attracted you to trading in the first place!